Things have only gotten worse so far. I've been wondering about when the peak of this wave will happen. When will things no longer be getting worse? To find out, I asked the data how accurate two stories are about this wave. Story 1. We are still on a path of unchecked exponential growth and there is no sign or it slowing. (A linear model between log of cumulative deaths and time.) To understand how accurate this story is, I calculated a statistic called "r-squared". It tells you how much of what we have observed so far is explained by this story. Think of this as a "story accuracy" statistic. The story accuracy statistic for the unchecked growth story is 98.34%, which is very high. It means that there has been a lot of unchecked viral spread so far. A lot. Story 2. For a long time, we were on a path of unchecked exponential growth but our recent efforts to contain the plague have been successful. (A cumulative normal distribution of log cumulative deaths and time.) This has a story accuracy statistic of 99.96%! The extra 1.6% of accuracy seems small but it may be consequential. To see why, I plotted the number of daily deaths over time along with Story 2 in the plot to the right.
We can see a recent stalling of the increase of fatalities, which gives the impression that we may have stopped the spread. And the red bending curve (story 2) seems to track the data points very closely. Extrapolating this curve two weeks into the future, it tells me that the peak will happen on April 16, 2020.